Imagine the scene: at noon on January 20, on the west front of the US Capitol. Donald Trump raises his hand to swear to preserve, protect, and defend the Constitution. This is the very spot where, four years ago, his supporters rioted in a dramatic challenge to democratic norms. Now, an extraordinary VIP guest overshadows the crowd of ex-presidents, military brass, and members of Congress—Xi Jinping, the hardline leader of China.
Bundled up against the winter chill, Xi’s presence in this fantastical image would symbolize more than mere diplomacy. As per the reports of Leaders team, to the US officials gathered, he represents the existential threat posed by China to American global dominance as the 21st-century cold war intensifies. But despite Trump’s audacious invitation to the leader of the Chinese Communist Party, this scene will never come to pass. Even before sources confirmed Xi’s absence, it was clear that such a visit was politically untenable.
As per the sources of Leaders team, for Xi, attending Trump’s inauguration would symbolize a concession to American power, conflicting with his vision of China as a preeminent global force. Sitting silently at a US ceremony, without a right of reply, would undermine his image of authority at home and abroad. It would also appear to endorse a democratic transfer of power—a concept at odds with China’s one-party autocracy.
Yet, Trump’s invitation remains significant. It showcases the president-elect’s confidence and grandiose approach to foreign policy. By breaking with diplomatic norms, Trump once again displays his penchant for bold gestures, banking on the force of his personality to shift global dynamics. This unpredictability has been a defining trait of his presidency and has occasionally tipped rivals off balance.
A Diplomatic Gamble
The invitation to Xi comes amid Trump’s assembly of a foreign policy team deeply hawkish on China, signaling a tougher stance in his second term. Figures like Marco Rubio as secretary of state and Mike Waltz as national security adviser view China as a multifaceted threat—economically, militarily, and even in space. The contrast between Trump’s conciliatory gesture and his administration’s hardline rhetoric raises questions about the true nature of US policy under his leadership.
“This is a very interesting move by Trump that fits very well with his practice of unpredictability,” said Lily McElwee, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. She sees the invitation as a low-cost symbolic gesture—an olive branch that disrupts the tone of US-China relations without undermining American interests.
While tensions with China are expected to escalate further, Trump’s outreach highlights his dual approach: tough rhetoric paired with occasional overtures of friendship. This unpredictability has often left both allies and adversaries struggling to navigate his intentions.
China in the Crosshairs
The US-China rivalry remains fraught with flashpoints. From Taiwan to trade wars, from military brinkmanship in the Pacific to accusations of espionage, the relationship teeters on the edge of conflict. Trump’s invitation to Xi appears contradictory, given his administration’s hawkish stance. Is it a calculated negotiating tactic or a genuine attempt to reframe the relationship?
China, for its part, is bracing for impact. In response to Trump’s election, Beijing has ramped up retaliatory measures, including an antitrust probe into Nvidia and restrictions on rare mineral exports. These actions underscore the high stakes of any renewed trade war, which could harm both nations’ economies.
The Chessboard Unfolds
Trump’s overture to Xi can be seen as an opening move in a high-stakes game that will shape the Pacific theater for years to come. If Trump’s gambit succeeds in peeling China away from its informal axis with Russia, Iran, and North Korea, it could be a major diplomatic win. However, his track record suggests caution. His first-term policies often produced more chaos than clarity, with enduring results still up for debate.
As Trump steps into his second term, the question remains: Will his unpredictable moves yield diplomatic breakthroughs, or will they deepen global tensions? For now, his invitation to Xi signals his intent to make bold plays on the international stage—even if the game is as perilous as ever.
