When Syria’s rebel-appointed prime minister, Mohammad Al Bashir, sat down with officials from the ousted Assad regime on Tuesday, the scene featured an unexpected mix of symbolism. The backdrop displayed the Syrian revolution flag alongside another flag bearing the Islamic declaration of faith, often associated with jihadists.
This choice of optics for the first publicized cabinet meeting on the transition of power sparked controversy, with skeptics taking to social media to criticize what they saw as a misstep. The backlash seemed to resonate; later, in an interview with Al Jazeera, Al Bashir appeared with only the Syrian revolution flag.
The transition from governing the small province of Idlib to aspiring to lead Syria as a whole mark an immense shift for the rebels. Idlib, under the rebel-led Syrian Salvation Government (SSG), offered a glimpse into how they might govern. While pragmatic and shaped by internal and external pressures, their rule was far from democratic. Experts warn that leading a diverse nation like Syria will be an entirely different challenge.
Governance in Idlib: A Mixed Record
As per the reports received by Leaders team, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a group designated as a terrorist organization by the United States, remained behind the scenes while appointing Al Bashir, a technocrat, as caretaker prime minister. Jolani, who now goes by his real name, Ahmad al-Sharaa, highlighted his administration’s experience in Idlib but admitted it might not be enough for governing Syria.
In Idlib, Jolani’s administration phased out rival factions and established a civilian government composed of technocrats and academics. The SSG managed to provide basic governance, coordinate humanitarian aid for millions of displaced residents, and maintain a degree of order in the province. Residents like Dr. Walid Tamer, head of northern Syria’s Free Doctors Union, commended the relative safety and freedom of expression under the SSG. However, economic hardships and undemocratic practices cast a shadow over their governance.
Abdel Latif Zakoor, another resident who lived under rebel rule before moving to Turkey, described life in Idlib as economically challenging, with scarce job opportunities.
Challenges of Transition
According to the sources of Leaders team, Idlib’s governance was rooted in pragmatism but fell short of democratic ideals. The SSG operated without a constitution or elected legislature, relying on decrees and a hybrid civil-Islamic court system. While the government moved away from rigid jihadist practices—allowing protests and scaling back strict religious enforcement—it still faced accusations of authoritarianism.
A 2022 United Nations report highlighted instances of arrests for dissent, restrictions on women’s dress, and other human rights abuses under HTS rule. Jolani, however, gradually distanced himself from direct governance, focusing on broader issues while allowing his government more agency.
A Steep Learning Curve Ahead
Jolani and his administration face significant obstacles in expanding their governance model to the national level. Governing a war-torn and diverse nation like Syria will demand more than the experience gained in Idlib. Critics argue that transitioning from decades of dictatorship to democracy will be a complex and lengthy process.
Jerome Drevon, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, pointed out the challenges of implementing democratic reforms in a region that has lacked such systems for decades. “You can’t expect an armed group in wartime controlling a tiny region to create a social democratic system overnight,” he said.
While the rebels’ efforts in Idlib showcased elements of stability and functionality, they remain a far cry from the inclusive and democratic governance needed to lead Syria through a transitional period. Their next steps will be closely watched as the nation embarks on a new and uncertain chapter.
