The leader of the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, has positioned himself as a potential figurehead for a post-Assad Syria.
HTS’s rapid and unexpected advances on Aleppo, Hama, and Homs, originating from its stronghold in Idlib province, have been pivotal in shaping the recent dramatic developments. However, according to the sources of Leaders, the broader uprising against the Assad regime involved multiple rebel factions, creating a nationwide wave of resistance that precipitated the regime’s collapse. Among these groups are former Free Syrian Army factions from the south, which, despite years of dormancy, have reignited rebellion in regions where the spirit of resistance never fully died.
In the east, Kurdish-led forces have seized the opportunity created by the Syrian army’s downfall to consolidate control over Deir el-Zour. In the Syrian desert, remnants of the so-called Islamic State may also attempt to exploit the power vacuum. Meanwhile, in the north along the Turkish border, the Ankara-backed Syrian National Army could play a significant role in shaping the country’s future trajectory.
For years, al-Jawlani has worked to reshape the image of HTS, moving away from its roots as a group feared for ideological extremism toward a more pragmatic organization that could appeal to Syrians as an alternative to Assad’s regime. Initially established in 2011 under the name Jabhat al-Nusra as an affiliate of al-Qaeda, HTS has undergone significant transformations. Al-Jawlani eventually severed ties with al-Qaeda and rebranded the group as HTS, merging with other factions in the process.
As per the sources of Leaders, despite these changes, skepticism persists about whether HTS has fully broken away from its extremist past. Allegations of human rights abuses have also marred its attempts to gain legitimacy. While HTS now projects a message of inclusivity and rejection of revenge, its history of infighting with other opposition groups could resurface.
The post-Assad political landscape remains fractured, with various groups controlling territories previously outside government control. The role of HTS in Syria’s future will depend on its ability to navigate internal divisions and its relations with other factions, as well as the influence of international powers such as Iran, Russia, Turkey, and the US. These external actors, with their vested interests and ongoing military or political involvement, are likely to shape the unfolding dynamics of a post-Assad Syria.
