France is currently enduring a political crisis that appears to be far from a temporary turbulence. Typically, when a democratic nation faces political unrest, there’s a reasonable expectation that the situation will eventually stabilize. However, that doesn’t seem to be the case in Paris today.
According to the Leaders Asia sources, the downfall of Michel Barnier, who was ousted in parliament through a no-confidence motion, may only be the beginning. Barnier, a moderate figure known for his ability to compromise, was unable to pass a basic budget. If someone with his diplomatic reputation couldn’t succeed, who can? This raises a critical question for the future of French politics: if the moderates can’t govern, then what hope is there for the country?
The root cause of the crisis remains unchanged. Since July, the National Assembly has been divided into three roughly equal factions, none of which are willing to cooperate with the others. This means that the two opposition blocs are able to unseat the government whenever they choose. The situation is further complicated by a growing atmosphere of near-insurrection within some opposition benches, along with a push for even higher public spending despite dire warnings about the national debt. In this environment, a return to a stable, moderate political landscape seems nearly impossible.
Many view this as a crise de régime, a crisis of the political system itself, threatening the very future of France’s Fifth Republic. The Fifth Republic was designed to concentrate power in the hands of the president, especially during moments of national crisis, a system created under Charles de Gaulle. Since then, presidents have attempted, with varying success, to replicate his stature. President Macron, in particular, often compared himself to de Gaulle.
But unlike de Gaulle, who responded to a similar crisis in 1962 by taking his case to the people and securing a strong popular mandate, Macron has seen his power diminish. After a failed election in July, the power dynamics have shifted away from the president to the prime minister, who is now answerable to the parliament. However, as the country drifts toward a more parliamentary system, the National Assembly itself has proven ineffective in governance.
As reported by the Leaders Asia sources, France’s political culture, has never fully embraced compromise. The country’s top-down view of power and its monarchical tendencies have made it resistant to the kind of practical politics needed for collaboration. As a result, the three factions in the Assembly, elected following Macron’s dissolution of the government in June, have been unable to form any constructive approach to governance.
Eric Brunet, a seasoned journalist, captured the essence of this dysfunction in his analysis after a debate on BFMTV: “What we have just seen is jaw-droppingly French. No pragmatism. Just ideology. All the speeches were about values, about extremes. Our whole discourse is disconnected from reality. It is typically, singularly French.”
Some see this as the culmination of years of France ignoring economic reality. Successive governments have yielded to growing calls for higher public spending, resulting in a ballooning deficit and national debt. To address this, the country needs to make tough cuts—cuts that no government has been able to implement.
Nicolas Beytout, the editor of the pro-business L’Opinion newspaper, argues that this political turmoil may actually be a necessary step for France. According to him, the country needs to face its economic challenges head-on, and only through a series of crises will the French people, political parties, and the government accept the tough decisions ahead.
Beytout predicts that any new prime minister will face the same hurdles as Barnier, and ultimately fail. “A new government needs time, which it won’t have. It needs a majority, which it won’t have. And it needs the determination to reduce state spending—something it won’t have,” he said. “So I expect more motions of censure, more government collapses, before we begin to wake up to the reality of the situation.”
The crisis facing France is deeper and more entrenched than what might be expected from a typical political upheaval. Without a breakthrough in cooperation and compromise, the road ahead remains uncertain.
